The West against the Rest, Part Three: Decline of a "white" world?

Myth or realistic prospect?
The Observer, Sunday 3 September 2000: "We are near a global watershed - a time when white people will not be in the majority in the developed world, Britain included." The meaning being, that the white population in the West will become a minority in their own countries in a not too distant future.
Not that the white population should be too worried. "Population has never been the main determinant of influence - it's wealth and income. White people still have their hands on most of the levers of military and economic power." Sounds threatening, but also somewhat naive, if the white population lose the majority, they may also lose the hands on the relevant levers. (Observer).
In 2011 the prolific French writer, Renaud Camus, published a book called "Le Grand Remplacement" prophesying the "Grand replacement." The replacement of people and civilization, especially in France and Europe, through mass migration. The population of the West being replaced by "replacers" consisting of "Migrants, so-called "refugees," invaders, ... and occupants." (R. Camus, "You will not replace us").
Not that the idea is really new. After the World War I. Oswald Spengler wasn't the only one seeing a decline of the West. The US saw the publication of a book prophesying "The rising tide of color against white world-supremacy."
Today Camus' rather speculative prophecies have inspired others and given rise to ideas and movements of "Replacism," Camus himself being involved in " Conseil National de la Résistance Européenne," to defend the European civilisation and oppose the replacement of the resident European population, "... aspirent à œuvrer à la défense de la civilisation européenne, à s’opposer au phénomène de substitution de peuples actuellement à l’œuvre sur notre continent, y compris dans sa dimension islamique et, de façon générale, à faire échec partout au totalitarisme remplaciste." (CNRE)
Other voices regard the prophecies of replacement as false and dangerous myths, dangerous ideas that fuel anti migration sentiments, right wing extremism and violence among ethnic groups.
A false myth because: "Whiteness, ... has never been fixed; it is a malleable concept, and it is on its way to changing again, as it has before." There you have it, with a sleight of hand replacement theories can be rejected as a census of the population fail to take into account "that many children from mixed backgrounds will likely be integrated into largely white social milieus and identify, at least some of the time, as white." (R Alba 2015). An argument that fits quite well with a similar concept of "you are what you feel" sexual identity.
Replacement prophecies are dangerous because: "Recent attacks demonstrate the potential for the Great Replacement theory to drive extreme-right mobilisation and terrorist acts. By examining the narratives that its proponents employ, it is clear that the theory lends itself to calls for radical action against minority communities – including ethnic cleansing, violence and terrorism." (Report from the London based think tank, "Institute for Strategic Dialogue."
It is argued that replacement ideas rest upon nationalistic naive myths that must be pushed back, belonging as they are to a dark "Unterwelt" of right wing extremism that must be eradicated from social media and public discussion.
Instead "We must work hard to break through the isolation that leads people to believe that disharmony and ethnic violence will actually bring about a better world. Through the hard work of community organising in rural and remote areas, where opinions on world events are often shaped more by demagogic news spin than personal experience, we can locate real needs, improve on community connectivity, and promote freedom and equality against alienation and ignorance."
There we have it, the split in the white population itself. On one side the prophecy of the great replacement of the white population in the West, on the other side the internationalists and multiculturalists, who want their enlightenment initiatives to shine the light of reason on those backward people in rural and remote areas, who might believe in the myths of replacement.
While this once more indicate a serious split in the West between self-proclaimed righteous and the backward alarmists, it must be important to cast some light on the facts, something that seem to be studiously avoided, by proponents and critics of replacism and its consequences.
What do data tell us with regard to the following topics and questions?
 
Population sizes and growth prospects
 
Stock of non-Western migrants in the West
 
Migration potential to the West from the Rest?
 
Last days of a "white" world?
 
Population sizes and growth prospects
Let's take a look at the demographic development in the West compared to the rest. First by comparing the size of the population and population growth in the West, somewhat simple defined also by being the "white world, " against the population and their growth in regions of the Rest.
Using projected 2019 data from "Worldometers" we get this picture:

With a World population of around 7.7 billion in 2019, the Asian population make up more than half of this number. The largest population is found in China with more than 1.4 billion and a yearly growth rate of 0.43 %, followed by India with nearly 1.4 billion and yearly growth rate of 1.02 %.
The population of Africa stands at around 1.3 billion in 2019, but has a phenomenal yearly growth rate around 2.52 %. Median age of the African population is calculated to be around 19.4 years.
Adding up the population of Europe and North America and ignoring for the moment the share of the non-white ethnic population in these regions, we arrive at little more than 1.1 billion people in West, where the majority is predominantly white.
With a world population of around 7.7 billion the West makes up around 1/7 or 14 % of world population, still a sizeable minority, but take a look at the growth rate: Europe 0.1 % and North America 0.63 %.
In demographic terms the future certain certainly looks bleak for the West compared to the Asia and Africa. Projections from the UN publication "World population prospects" show what may happen:

Again using projected 2019 data from "Worldometers" we get this picture of World population in 2050:

In 2050 World population is projected to be around 9.7 billion, with the West (mainly North America and Europe) making up a small fraction. The population of Europe is forecast to reach 710 million in 2050 with a growth rate of -0.26 %, while North America is forecast to reach a population of 425 million with a growth rate of 0.34 %..
Thus the population of West would stand at around than 1.14 billion in 2050. Around 12 % of the world population.
China would be expected to stagnate at around the size it has now, 1.4 billion, India to grow to 1.6 billion, while Africa would reach a phenomenal 2.5 billion people, or more than 25 % of the world population. Projections for Africa in the 2100 reach more than 4 billion, with the majority found in the Sub Saharan Africa.
A projection from "Worldmapper" illuminates the demographic change by altering the size of the countries to reflect their population size in 2050. A very visual demonstration of Western population "anorexia."

In a previous blog post "Ominous signs of Western decline" we used slightly different projections to calculate the demographic share each of the World's major regions. Population wise the World in 2050 would be dominated by Asia and Africa. Asia would make up more half of the World's population with Africa's making one fourth, Europe around 7 percept and North America less than 5 percept.
It is evident that the population of the West, and thus the major part of the "White World," will only make up a tiny part of the World's population in 2050. A very small West compared to an overwhelming and still growing Rest.
What's more, the major part of the West is aging. Data from "Statista" show that Europe has 17 % over 65, North America around 15 % while Africa only has 4 %, and Asia 8 %.
Still, it is not enough to look at the overall size of the population in the West to see if there is some truth to the so-called replacement theses.
It is also important to see how composition of the population changes as a result of migration from the Rest of the world.
 
Stock of non-Western migrants in the West
Here first the number of international migrants by region of origin according to UN (International Migration Report 2017)*

Most international migrants originate in Asia and Europe, followed by Latin America and Africa.
But that only gives us part of the picture. We need to know how many of the non-Western migrants end up in the West, either in Europe or North America. Another diagram from the UN report show the percentage distribution on destinations of international migrants for each region of origin:

From this we get the following numbers for the stock of migrants in Europe (overstated as the UN apparently counts Russia and Ukraine to Europe) and North America:

It is evident that this paints a picture of a situation in which non-Western migration doesn’t yet represent a threat to the resident population of the West. With a present population of Europe at more than 747 million, the migrant stock of Africans, Asians and Latin Americans only add up to 34 million, or 4,6 %
For North America the present population stands at more than 366 million and the migrant stock adds up to 46 million, or around 13 %.
Using data from other sources we try to get a a more precise idea of the ethic composition of the population in Europe and the USA.
 
Non-EU and non-Western population in the EU
Using data from The European Commissions "Atlas of Migration 2018" which actually doesn't contain an atlas, but numbers and diagrams, it is possible to get an idea of apparent proportion of non-EU citizens in the EU. Including as it does migrants from non-EU Western countries, this would only indicate the maximum size of the non-Western population.

For the EU as a whole non-EU citizens make up 4.4 % of the population according to date from Eurostat 2018. A number that seems to be used to argue that the number of non-EU citizens really isn't of a size that would threaten the resident population. Thus giving lie to the replacement theses.
 
Data politics
Alas, these numbers doesn't give us the whole picture. What we actually want to know is the proportion of the population of non-Western migrants and their immediate descendants. Such data are difficult to find. In France for instance it is not allowed to collect such data, thus one has to rely on more or less qualified assessments
The CIA Handbook has some assessment of ethnic groups for most countries, but here we rely on some illustrative national data from Denmark, Germany, France, UK and the US.
 
Denmark: Non-Western population
Data from the Danish National Integration Barometer show that on 1. July 2019 the share of the population made up of non-Western migrants and their descendants stood at 511,625, or around 9 % of the population. Significantly more that in the map showing percentage of non-eu citizens.
 
Germany: Non-Western population
For Germany "Statistisches Bundesamt" data show that in 2018 one of four in the population had a migration background, in total 20,8 million. No, this doesn't say anything else about their origin. But other data sources indicate that those with non-Western origin are made up of 14.4 % from Turkey, 7.2 % from Russia, 6.4 % from Kazakhstan, and 3.7 % from Syria. This would mean that at least 8 % of the population are of non-Western origin. Indicating of course that real proportion of the EU population with a non-Western origin is much higher than 4.4 % non-EU citizens found Eurostat data.

France: Non-Western population
According to WorldAtlas, some 85 % of a population of 67 milion are reckoned to be white, 10 % of North African descent, 3,3 % Black and 1.7 % Asian.

UK (England and Wales): Non-white population
According to population data from GOV.UK "the percentage of the population of England and Wales that was White British decreased from 87.4% to 80.5% from 2001 to 2011, while the Other White group saw the largest increase in their share of the population, from 2.6% to 5.4%"
Asians made up 7.5 %, Black 3.3 %, Mixed 2.2 % Other 1 %

USA: Non-white population.
In the US it is easier to get data for ethic composition of the population. Using data from "2017 National Population Projections Tables" we get the following table (numbers in thousands):

The reason for not including people from Latin America in the "white population," is explained by the note: "Hispanic origin is considered an ethnicity, not a race. Hispanics may be any race."
The non-Hispanic Whites still make up the majority of population, followed by the Hispanic or Latino population and the Black or African American population.
Putting to rest for the moment the replacement thesis, that of course refer to replacement of a population of Western origin by a population of non-Western origin.
What about the future, given the migration potential?
 
Migration potential to the West from the Rest?
"Gallup World Poll surveys find people's desire to migrate permanently to another country actually increased between 2015 and 2017. Gallup's surveys throughout this period found 15% of the world's adults -- or more than 750 million people -- saying they would like to move to another country if they had the opportunity. "(Gallup).
In Sub-Saharan Africa this goes for 33 % of the population, in Latin-America for 27 %, in the Middle-East/North Africa 24 % and in East Asia 8 %.
What would this mean for the West? What would be the potential migration to Europe and say the US from Africa and Latin America. Using data from a Gallup white paper (N. Esipova, J. Ray, R. Srinivasan), the potential number of migrants can be calculated.
 
From Sub-Sharan Africa
Assuming a Sub Saharan Population of around 1 billion, there would be a potential for 333 million migrants, not all of course would want to migrate to the West, but according to the white paper on potential migration, 33 % would want to go to the US, 11 % to UK, 6 % to France.
Meaning a potential for migration from the Sub Saharan region of around 110 million to the US, 37 million to the UK and 20 million to France.
 
From Middle-East and North Africa
The World Bank reckons the population of MENA stands at 449 million in 2018. According to the white paper on potential migration, 24 % of the population have a desire to migrate, or around 108 million. 42% of these would prefer to migrate to the EU, 18 % North America. Meaning a potential for 45 million migrants from MENA to the EU and 19 million to the US., the majority presumably muslims.
 
From Latin America
Gallup analytics is estimating that 42 million people from Latin America have a desire to migrate to the U.S.

From East Asia
According to Worldometer the population in East Asia stands at 1,674 billion in 2019. If 8 % of these having a desire to migrate it would mean around 134 million potential migrants. According to Gallup 29 % would prefer USA, 9 % Canada, and for instance 6 % France.
This would mean around 39 million potential migrants bound for the USA, 12 million for Canada, and 8 million for France.
 
These potential numbers may look scary for the West with its small share of World population and if one were to calculate the potential based upon the projected future population in 2050 of say Sub Sahara the potential would overwhelm the West.
If the potential migration from the Rest to the West calculated here were to be realised it would fundamentally change the demographic composition of the West, and in a certain sense confirm the wild theses of those warning of the great replacement of the West's "white" population.
Potentially, for our calculations are based upon what people are saying that they would want to do, and most may never be able to realise their desire to migrate. It may only be a pipe dream based upon wildly exaggerated views of life in the West.
On the other hand it is very difficult to forecast numbers for more realistic future migration from non-Western regions.
In the attempt to find what might be more realistic projections we will focus on forecasts for migration from Africa to Europe, and forecasts for migration from Latin America to the US.
 
From Africa to Europe
A paper from the European Commissions Science Hub with the title "Many more to come?" tries to give a more realistic picture of future migration within and from Africa, with the focus upon migration to the EU.
A diagram shows that migration to Europe (EU) from Africa is on the rise:

"On average. 400,000 to 500,000 ... have been moving to Europe each year" accoring to the report. While legal migration is declining, illegal migration is on the rise.
While the numbers of illegal migration reached more than 200,000 in 2016 they have since gone down, due perhaps mostly to the actions of the former Italian minister of the interior, Marco Minniti.
Even so the diagram shows that there is a growing pressure from African migrants.
The paper calculates, rather conservatively it would seem, that under one of their scenarios there would be an "increase in the annual number of Africans leaving their country of origin from 1.4 million in 2015 to 3.5 million in
2050."
Other data show that in 2017 "53.4% of all African migrants stayed in Africa, while 25.7% travelled to Europe and 12.2% to Asia. While the overwhelming majority (almost 90%) of North African migrants moved to Europe or Asia, over 70% of sub-Saharan African migrants moved within the continent." (mo.ibrahim.foundation)
If we take future African migration to be around 3.5 million in 2050 and the proportion moving to Europe to 25,7 %, it would mean we could expect around 900,000 migrants per year from Africa in 2050.
While this may be more realistic than the calculation we had from the potential Gallup numbers, it would certainly still have serious effect in a Europe with a diminishing resident population if this were to happen. Not immediate replacement perhaps but certainly squeezing.
And it might get worse, with prospects of climate changes in Africa. Especially in the Sahel region. "The UN estimates that by 2050, there will be 200 million people forcibly displaced from their homes due to climate change alone" (The Guardian). A large part of these presumably in Africa.

Last days of a "white" World?
To get an idea of what may happen to the ethic composition in the West under certain migration and fertility assumptions, a look at the rapidly changing ethnic composition in the UK and the US may be illustrative.
 
UK demographic upheaval
"If current trends continue, the so-called majority-ethnic group in the UK - white British - will become a minority before 2070" according to a projection from Oxford University's Migration Observatory.
The forecast for this dramatic change presumes that nothing is done to diminish the immigration of non-white ethnic groups, that fertility remain high among the non-Western migrants that at the present make up the minority in the UK, while fertility remains at the present low level for the white British population.
The Migration Observatory has looked at the future composition of the population under different assumptions, and what will happen to the proportion of the white British population under these assumptions, as shown in this graph.

Standard scenario means no change in immigration. Balanced migration presumes balance between in and out migration. Natural change presumes a stop for immigration. Ethnic mobility is defined as ""inter-generational" ethnic mobility into the ‘White British’ group, which slows its numerical decline, albeit by gradually altering its ancestry," i.e. more people are defined as belonging to the white population.
As it is hardly to be expected that the immigration of non-white ethic groups of people will be stopped completely. Under the standard scenario, this would mean that somewhere in the last quarter of this century (around 2070), the present "White British" majority will become a minority. What this will mean to the UK one can only guess, but suddenly the question of whether this represents the last days of a "white" world, does not sound quite so outlandish.
At the recent Labour Conference a motion on migration was carried, that would open up for even more more immigration. It calls "for free movement, equality and rights for migrants." Rejection of "any immigration system based on incomes, migrants’ utility to business, and number caps/targets" and "equal rights to vote to all UK residents." Residents not citizens! Meaning that the 2070 scenario could happen much sooner.
While the UK may represent an extreme example of the potential for drastic demographic changes in Europe, changes what would give credence to some the wild replacement theories, we shall also have a look at the potential demographic changes in the US.
 
US demographic upheaval
Using data from the US Census "National Projection Tables" we find the following picture of the future composition in 2060 (population in thousands):

For a not too distant future these data show that the Non-Hispanic White population will become a minority in the US, making up only 44.3 % of the population, although still the largest of the ethnic groups. In absolute numbers Non-Hispanic White population have declined from 198 million to 179 million.
According estimates from the United States Census Bureau in 2018, Non-Hispanic whites are already a minority in California, comprising 36.8 % of the population, while the Hispanic or Latino population comprise 39.3 %.
Again giving some kind of credence to the replacement theses.
 
Demographic "suicide" of the West?
Professor David Coleman from Oxford University's Migration Observatory points out that what is happening in the UK may happen in other countries: "On current trends European populations will become more ethnically diverse, with the possibility that today's majority ethnic groups will no longer comprise a numerical majority in some countries."
It has to be remembered that the drastic changes may happen earlier, if one only looks at the younger part of the population, or some of the larger cities.
Really dependable forecasts are difficult to make, with the rise in mixed population, with variation in migration patterns.
Exact numbers are hard to come by because of a certain "head in the sand" attitude caused by a self-inflicted political correctness attitude. Meaning that one may not be willing to register or publish data of the ethnic composition, which certainly make accurate forecasts difficult, and recognition of potential future problems extremely dificult.
According to the French INSEE (Insitut national de la statistique et des etúdes économiques) the Constitutional Council forbade the collection of data on ethnicity in 2007)
It is not only a question of official rules for not collecting data. It is certainly also a question of correct political attitude. A researcher who becomes too implicated in studying a “disqualified” topic is in danger of condemnation.
Writing of immigration studies in a none-too-distant context, Sayad (1991) coined the term “sociologie du petit” ; i.e., “subjects situated near the bottom of the social hierarchy of research ‘objects’”, thereby exposing the circular process through which the illegitimacy of the research topic comes to affect those seeking to handle it." (Simon, 2010).
"A demographer, who didn't want to be named for fear of being called racist, said: 'It's a matter of pure arithmetic that, if nothing else happens, non-Europeans will become a majority and whites a minority in the UK. That would probably be the first time an indigenous population has voluntarily become a minority in its historic homeland.'" (The Guardian).
At the recent Budapest Demographic Summit in September 2019, the Hungarian Prime minister, Viktor Orbàn, voiced similar fears: "If in the future Europe is to be populated by people other than Europeans, and we accept this as a fact and see it as natural, then we will effectively be consenting to population replacement: to a process in which the European population is replaced."
While views and statements like these are either ignored, received with unease or outright rejected, the numbers and the potential demographic changes presented here would seem to bear them out.
The West may in fact be committing a kind of slow and silent demographic "suicide" on itself. Although it must be said that this presumes that one understands the demographic West as being characterised by having a majority of "white people." No wonder that The Robert Schuman Foundation is warning that "A deafening silence surrounds Europe's demographic suicide, projected for 2050."
The decline seems to happen in political correct silence as decision makers in the West don't seem to be alarmed by the bleak demographic projections, instead praising diversity and multiculturalism. Ignoring that the almost tectonic population shifts may have enormous consequences in the last half of the 21st century for West.

What happens to the achievements that have characterised the West and fought for through generations: Freedom and liberty, democracy and rule of law?

What happens to the potential for future economic development and to the scientific and technological performance of the West against the Rest?

What happens to the hard fought for value systems underpinning these achievements?

Perhaps there is a real danger, not only of a clash between civilisations, but within Western civilisation. Major shifts in the composition of the population of the West raises the spectre of intercultural conflicts and perhaps even civil wars.
 
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* "International migrant stocks are estimates of "the total number of international migrants present in a given country at a particular point in time". United Nations (UN) data on these stocks are based mostly on the country’s population that is born abroad, and (where this information is not available) on holding a foreign citizenship"
https://migrationdataportal.org/themes/international-migrant-stocks