 As we have seen in Part One the West scores high compared to the Rest, when comparing core Western concepts and values with the Rest. But what is the picture if we compare first the economic performance of the West against the Rest and secondly the scientific and technological performance? Economic Performance In comparing the more general economic prospects of the West with Rest, we limit the comparison to relatively manageable and comparable measures of GDP. GDP per capita Data from IMF (The International Monetary Fund) allow relevant comparisons of GDP per capita based upon measures of GDP at current prices, purchasing power parity and international dollars. Somewhat like the popular Big Mac index, also known as Burgernomics. An IMF map with projected GDP per capita for the countries of the World in 2019 show this picture (IMF World economic outlook 2019):  We see most of the West in front with the highest GDP per capita, together with Japan, South Korea and Singapore. In the next tier we find a few countries in the West followed by China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and parts of South America. Looking at separate regions and countries we have USA with more than 64,000 USD per capita, Western Europe with almost 43,000 USD, China with slightly more than 10,000 USD, Russia more than 11,000 USD, and countries like Saudi Arabia with more than 22.000 USD, Qatar with more than 70.000 USD, and Singapore with more than 65,000 USD. At the top end we find Luxembourg with more than 112,000 USD per capita. At the absolute bottom is South Sudan with 235 USD, and Sub-Saharan Africa with a little less than 1,700 USD per capita. Evidently there is a discrepancy between the earlier rankings for Liberty, democracy and rule and law in the Part One blog entry, and the measures for GDP per capita. Countries that certainly don't score high on the previous measures may be seen to score fairly well on GDP per capita. Thus economic development apparently, and perhaps contrary to conventional wisdom, does not depend on a high degree of liberty, democracy and rule of law. This certainly seems to be the case for China. Other cases represents what one might call freak incidents, like the cases of Saudi-Arabia, Qatar and other countries on the Arabian peninsula, where the main explanation for the high score on GDP per capita are the enormous oil and gas resources. GDP per country and region The economic picture of the West against the Rest changes markedly if we instead of looking at GDP per capita look the GDP of countries and regions of the world. A map of GDP per country from IMF's Datamapper shows this picture:  Eye-catching are the almost equal sized circles for the USA and China, while the size of GDP for Europe disappears under the circles for each country. But if we were to add up the GDP for Europe, we would end up with a circle even larger than USA's and China's, thus creating a tripartite picture of the World, with three centres of gravity, USA with 20,494 billion USD (Purchasing power parity; billions of international dollars), Europe total with 28,060 billion USD, and China with 25,270 billion USD. Adding up countries of East Asia gives 34,78 billion USD, while Africa is left far behind with 6,79 billion USD. Real GDP growth IMF's Datamapper of projected real GDP growth for 2019 show a slowdown of growth in the West, in the main between 0-3 per cent, continued high growth in China and the whole Asian region of more than 6 per cent. Even parts of Africa show a high rate of growth, but of course from a vey low absolute level. Not unexpectedly we see negative growth in Turkey, Iran, Sudan and Argentina. (IMF Datamapper):  Now, what is happening to important drivers of economic growth, like scientific and technological development? Scientific and technological competition Here we limit ourselves to look at R&D (Research and Development), concrete areas like AI (Artificial Intelligence) quantum computing and patent applications. R&D In January 2019 The Economist in the piece called "Red moon rising – How China could dominate science"posed the question "Should the world worry?" If we look at the rapid pace with which China, at least up until now, has been moving, the answer must be "Yes, the West should worry." A worrying picture of the haste with which China moves can be had by comparing investments in R&D in China with some major competitors. Here shown in a graph from the National Science Board ("Science and Engineering Indicators 2018"):  Note the extremely rapid growth in investment in China compared to its competitors. According to a science report from UNESCO "China will outpace the USA as the world’s leading R&D spender by around 2019, reaching another important milestone in its endeavour to become an innovation-oriented nation by 2020." (UNESCO science report: towards 2030). Further cause to worry in the West in comparison with the Rest, here mainly in the shape of China, may be found in an evaluation of USA's "National Security Strategy," asserting that "Part of China’s military modernization and economic expansion is due to its access to the U.S. innovation economy, including America’s world-class universities." In addition there is the worry, voiced not the least by President Trump, that China is acquiring knowledge by illegitimate means: "The White House Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy also noted China’s prevalent use of cyber-enabled theft (as well as physical theft) in acquiring technologies and intellectual property in strategic sectors." According to the UNECO report China itself has realised that it is still too dependent on imported basic science and technology. Thus, there are problems related to China's investment in high tech industries in the US and Europe, that gives China access to key technologies. Trump is no longer alone in warning against this phenomenon. President Macron has voiced similar reservations on behalf of the EU. In the West against the Rest comparison only China and the rest of Asia are relevant. The Arab, African and Latin American regions are lacking far behind, spending less than 1 per cent of GDP on R&D. Meaning that they cannot really compete in R&D in general, but the case of Iran shows that focused investments in weapons- and nuclear technology can pose a serious threat, while Africa's rapid population growth, without corresponding economic growth, may pose a different kind of threat. AI Fanciful ideas of some kind of mechanical intelligence have a long history, just think of Greek automatons, Karel Capek's robots, Frankenstein like humanoids, and Turing machines, but the term "artifical intelligence" is relative new. Apparently coined by the computer scientist John McCarthy at a conference in 1956. He believed that "every aspect of learning or any other feature of intelligence can in principle be so precisely described that a machine can be made to simulate it." There are many attempts to define AI, Here is just one that seems to catch present conception of AI. "AI refers to computing systems that can perform one or several functions such as perceiving, learning, reasoning, making decisions, and taking actions in complex, uncertain environments. AI systems can be instantiated in physical machines in the real world, such as in trading agents that make buy and sell decisions in virtual markets." (Scipol.duke.edu) Applications of AI are found in many areas today: Autonomous cars, virtual assistants recognising speech, like Siri, Alexa, Assistant and Cortana. It is found in medicine, education, public safety, entertainment, banking, legal professions, and of course in manufacturing. Given the overwhelming importance of AI, especially in relation to expected future prospects, it is important to see how the West fares in relation to the Rest. In a paper to Congress, "Rise of the Machines," it is asserted that the US has been leading the World in the development of AI: "The United States has traditionally led the world in the development and application of AI-driven technologies. This is due in part to the government’s prior commitment to investing heavily in research and development (R&D) that has, in turn, helped support AI’s growth and development. " The report then warns that the US risks falling behind in its investments in AI, especially in relation to China, that is investing heavily in AI. The risk that the US is being overtaken by China is documented by data from the National Science Foundation.  According to this projection the US will be overtaken by China in the next few years. Not a very satisfying prospects for the US or the West. In 2018 China published its "Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan." In 2025 "new-generation AI will be widely used in intelligent manufacturing, intelligent medicine, intelligent city, intelligent agriculture, national defence construction, and other fields, while the scale of AI’s core industry will be more than 400 billion RMB, and the scale of related industries will exceed 5 trillion RMB. (Around 700 billion USD)" By 2030 "The country will achieve major breakthroughs in brain-inspired intelligence, autonomous intelligence, hybrid intelligence, swarm intelligence, and other areas, having important impact in the domain of international AI research and occupying the commanding heights of AI technology. AI industry competitiveness will reach the world-leading level." While US have published strategies for future AI initiatives, it would seem that President Trump has mainly put his faith into private sector initiatives. Meaning there that there appears to be no similar plan in the US. The US and China are the big players in the AI game, with important implications for the future. Europe meanwhile really seems to be lacking behind. In a EU commination about a "Coordinated Plan on Artificial Intelligence," this is at least realised, but what does the EU plan for the future? "Investment levels for AI in the Union are low and fragmented, relative to other parts of the world such as the US and China. To remedy this shortcoming, the April Communication sets an ambitious objective, aiming to increase investment and reach a total (public and private sectors combined) of at least EUR 20 billion in the period 2018-2020, and to increase investments progressively to EUR 20 billion per year in the course of the next decade." Based upon these admittedly simple comparisons future prospects for the West with regard to AI look rather bleak compared to China. A similar picture may be emerging in the area of quantum computing. Quantum computing In June 2017 "Science" reported that China had carried out a World first in a quantum computing experiment using China's Micious quantum satellite: "a team of physicists reports that it sent eerily intertwined quantum particles from a satellite to ground stations separated by 1200 kilometres, smashing the previous world record." In July 2018 edition of "Scientific American" it was stated that Chinese researchers had achieved a new record by packing 18 qubits, the basic units of quantum computing, into just six weirdly connected photons. Now China is working on 24 qubits quantum computers and next year 50 qubits computers hoping eventually to achieve quantum supremacy, which would mean that a quantum computer could perform calculations that conventional computers cannot. In the US IBM presented its Q System One quantum computer with 20 qubits in January 2019. A Washington Post article from 18 August, 2019, shows that China has leapt past the West (US and Europe) in the number of patent filings for quantum technology in the past few years. In 2018 China had 492 patents filing, the US 248 and the EU a miserly 31, overtaken even by South Korea with 45. Patent filings A more general yardstick for technological development and perhaps for development in the wider sense, when comparing the West and the Rest, may had by looking at the number of patent applications. WIPO (World Intellectual Property Organization) writes that "China received 1.38 million patent applications, double the number received by the United States of America (U.S.). A bar chart of the number of patent applications at the World's top ten offices, allow a simple comparison of the West with the Rest. It seems evident that the West, seen as mainly the US and Europe (EPO) is the European Patent Office), is lacking behind the Asian countries China, Japan, and South Korea. (WIPO).  It must be noted though that only 4.6 per cent of the Chinese applications are filed abroad, while 44 per cent of US applications are filed abroad, and a similar percentage of Japanese applications.
Chinese research priorities From what we have seen it is becoming evident that "The West against the Rest" in science and technology is mainly a question of the US (with contribution from Europe) against China, but is has to remembered that China is prioritising and advancing research in other areas too. One example, in January China's Chang'e 4 lunar explorer was making a soft landing on the dark side of the moon, the first time this has been accomplished. According to China's recently published lunar exploration plans a future Chang'e 8 mission "will test key technologies to lay the groundwork for the construction of a science and research base on the moon." China's 13th five year plan 2016-202O, mentions priority science projects in all these areas: 1. Quantum communications and computation 2. Brain research 3. National cyberspace security 4. Deep space exploration 5. Clean, efficient use of coal 6. Industrial, medical and military robots 7. Applications of gene science 8. Big data applications 9. Deep-sea experimental platform 10. New Arctic observatory, Antarctic station Meaning that the West is in for furious competition from China in wide ranging areas. Economic and scientific development shifting east? The picture emerging from these comparisons indicates that economic clout is not only found in the West, in the case of Europe split up in separate countries, but also in the East, especially in China, and to a lesser degree India and Japan, while we can forget Arabian countries, Africa and Latin America. Looking at the differences in economic performance and economic growth we see a picture in which the important historical economic clout of the West is rapidly diminishing. While the West may still have the upper hand in absolute terms, the centre of gravity for the important drivers of economic growth, like scientific and technological advances, seem to be shifting east quite rapidly. The shining scientific crown of the West challenged by China. Leading to a slow but inevitable decline of the West compared to the East. Indirectly threatening the core values and concepts the West holds high. While the West is getting itself in a kind of climate hysteria, the major drivers of its success compared to Rest are in peril to be ignored or forgotten. |
