 More weapons a way to peace? In a recent somewhat rambling speech Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, sounded a little like the “War is Peace” motto of Oceania in Orwell’s 1984. In Stoltenberg’s version it sounded like this (nato.int): “So if we want a negotiated peace solution, where Ukraine survives as an independent democratic country in Europe, the fastest way to get there is to support Ukraine. Weapons are – in fact – the way to peace.” (Emphasis added). Perhaps he may have had some doubts as to the wisdom of this, as he also said: “Wars are unpredictable. It is impossible to say when, or how, the war in Ukraine will end. But what we do know is that most wars end at the negotiating table. Most likely this one too. What Ukrainians can achieve at the table depends on their strength on the battlefield.” One may perhaps wonder what they believe and say on the other side of this proxy war against Russia. Does President Putin and his compatriots (whom we might perhaps see as the 1984 Eurasians) have a similar belief in war as the way to peace? And if they do what would that mean for the proxy war in Ukraine? A continuous escalation until at least one side realizes that war isn’t in fact the way to peace? Or “guerre à outrance” between Russia and NATO? A self-imposed taboo is being broken In the first week of 2023 France announced that they would deliver a number of AMX RC-10 (véhicule militaire blindé de reconnaissance-feu) to Ukraine. A kind of light wheeled tank, highly mobile and provided with a quite potent 105mm gun. Not a real main battle tank, but even so it marks a new escalatory step in the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. The French announcement seems to have paved the way for similar announcements from Bundeskanzler Scholz and President Biden. Germany says it will deliver 40 Marder Schützenpanzer. At least a Panzer in name, but really just an infantry fighting vehicle with a 20 mm automatic cannon, possibly provided with MELLS antitank guided missile system. The U.S. will deliver 50 Bradley armoured infantry fighting vehicles armed with a 25 mm Bushmaster M242 chain gun and provided with TOW anti-tank missiles in order to be able to defend themselves against Russian tanks. Although the Bradley has to be stationary while the TOW missile finds its way to an enemy tank. Apparently, the U.S. is also weighing sending versions of the Stryker eight wheeled armoured personnel carrier to Ukraine. Another version of this armoured personnel carrier is already found in Ukraine, in the shape of the Canadian LAV ACSV Armoured Personnel Carrier. Canada last year decided to send 39 of these to Ukraine. Germany has furthermore promised a Patriot system in addition to the system to be supplied by the U.S. Before the Ukraine can use the diverse fighting vehicles and Patriot batteries, they have to send personal to Germany and the U.S. to train on the systems. For each Patriot systems it means that around 75-90 men have to spend around two months to learn to use complicated the system. Patriot batteries may indirectly involve NATO even more in the war in Ukraine, as its Link 16 communication system “means US airborne radars and NATO combat air patrols can pass radar tracks of Russian sorties in real time to Ukrainian Patriot systems, which can fire upon the linked tracks. The Ukrainians can also pass back data on Russian drones, cruise missile attacks, and other activities back through Link 16.” Paving the way for Main Battle Tanks? Now, do these promised deliveries pave the way for deliveries of main battle tanks like German Leopard 2s to Ukraine. The German newspaper “Handelsblatt” article “Deutschland und seine Panzer für die Ukraine – Erst der Marder, dann der Leopard” may indicate what is expected to happen. The pressure on Kanzler Scholz is certainly growing. “Deutschlands Verbündete erhöhen plötzlich zeitgleich den Druck auf Olaf Scholz, grünes Licht für die Lieferung von Leopard-Panzern zu geben.“ (welt.de). In a TV interview von der Leyen, the German President of the European Commission, is arguing giving in to Ukraine’s demands: “If they say they need main battle tanks, then we should take it seriously and deliver them to them.” (Bild TV). Meanwhile Poland is apparently considering providing Ukraine with some of the German Leopard 2 tanks they got from Germany, when they delivered some of their old Russian T-72 tanks to Ukraine. A characteristic of the Leopard 2: „Hauptwaffe ist eine 120-Millimeter-Glattrohrkanone. Damit kann der Leopard Ziele in einer Entfernung von mehreren tausend Metern stehend und fahrend bekämpfen. Seine maximale Kampfentfernung beträgt 5.000 Meter. Der Leopard 2 vereint Feuerkraft, Panzerschutz und Beweglichkeit.“ (bundeswehr.de) https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/ausruestung-technik-bundeswehr/landsysteme-bundeswehr/leopard-2 There are also rumours that the UK is considering sending a limited number of the British main battle tank, the Challenger 2, to Ukraine according to The Times (Monday January 9): “Britain is considering sending tanks to help Ukraine stage a major counteroffensive in the spring. The UK could supply about a dozen Challenger 2s and become the first country in western Europe to send Ukraine tanks. The Challenger has a 1,200 horsepower engine and is equipped with a 120mm gun. Only one has ever been destroyed in combat, when it was hit by friendly fire in Basra during the Iraq war. Although no decision has been made, Ukrainian officials expect an announcement at the end of next week when defence ministers meet at the Ramstein airbase in Germany.” If this happens the floodgates have really been opened up for the delivery of the kind of heavy offensive weapons the Ukraine has been clamouring for. Next one might perhaps expect even the U.S. M1A2 Abrams Main Battle Tank to show up in Ukraine. If that happens it would really represent a major escalation by the Western side.Paragraph.  Challenger 2 MBT with the old L30, 120mm rifled gun from BAE Systems
Overview of recent security assistance for Ukraine United States: More than $3 billion additional U.S. security assistance for Ukraine announced January 6
Germany: Militärische Unterstützungsleistungen für die Ukraine: Eine Patriot-Feuereinheit und bis zu 40 Schützenpanzer Marder liefert Deutschland an die Ukraine, um sie im Verteidigungskampf gegen den Aggressor zu unterstützen. (Emphasis added). Furthermore:
An even longer list of weapons and equipment had already been decided earlier. The complete January list can be found at https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/themen/krieg-in-der-ukraine/lieferungen-ukraine-2054514 |
