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“Korean solution” to the war in Ukraine?

2/7/2023

 
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To understand the need for negotiation now it might be worthwhile to read the recent RAND Corporation perspective “Avoiding a Long War – U.S. policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict” (rand.org January 2023). The authors write: “We conclude that, in addition to averting possible escalation to a Russia-NATO war or Russian nuclear use, avoiding a long war is also a higher priority for the United States than facilitating significantly more Ukrainian territorial control.” In other words, give up supporting the Ukrainian goal of getting all the Ukrainian territory back.
 
The authors discuss two possible negotiated ends to the war:
 
The “Korean” solution
“An armistice in Ukraine would freeze the front lines and bring a long-term end to active combat. Russia would stop attempts to occupy additional Ukrainian territory and cease missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Ukrainian forces would stop their counteroffensives— strikes on Russian-held areas of Ukraine and on Russia itself. There would still be ongoing, unresolved territorial disputes (that is, divergent positions on the location of Ukraine’s borders) between Kyiv and Moscow; these would be contested politically and economically, not militarily.”
 
Political settlement
“A political settlement or peace treaty would involve both a durable cease-fire and a resolution of at least some of the disputes that sparked the war or emerged during it. Since 1946, peace treaties have been less common than armistice agreements, but they tend to produce a durable end to fighting and reduction in tensions. In the case of the Russia-Ukraine war, a settlement would entail negotiated compromises on some of the core political issues at stake for the two sides.” Issues like territory, NATO membership or non-
alignment, security guaranties, relief from sanctions, reconstruction, mutual relations etc.
 
Another warning voice worth listening to is a former German “Chairman of the NATO Military Committee,” General A. d. Harald Kujat: “Now would be the time to resume negotiations. Both warring factions are currently back in a stalemate, exacerbated by seasonal restrictions. So now would be the right time to resume the broken-off negotiations. The arms shipments mean the opposite, meaning that the war will be pointlessly prolonged, with even more casualties on both sides and the continued destruction of the country. But also with the result that we are drawn even deeper into this war. (infosperber.ch January 26, translated from German).
 


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    Verner C. Petersen
    https://www.linkedin.com/in/vernercpetersen/

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