Freezing the war in Ukraine?

No Taurus for Ukraine?
On Thursday March 14, 2024, The German Bundestag again discussed the Taurus for Ukraine question, after Chancellor Scholz continued refusal to send long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine.
After attacks from the CDU/CSU led opposition, the leader of SPD (The Social Democratic Party) in Bundestag, Dr. Rolf Mützenich, defended Chancellor Scholz’s decision not to send Taurus to Ukraine and derided the opposition.
 
Freeze the War
In a “don’t mention the war” moment he said: “I think we should focus on more important things… I also say in your direction – especially to those who to feel addressed by it –: Don’t we also need a clever debate on how we can involve countries, who interpret or instrumentalize the war in Ukraine differently from us, towards the goal of ending the war. Unfortunately – and we have to say this – Outside of Europe, many countries have a different look at this war.
And that brings me to the question – in the Bundestag this is obviously often seen as shameful just to ask it –: Isn't it time we didn't just talk about how to wage a war, but also think about how one can freeze a war and later also end it? Aren't these questions also politically important?” (Emphasis added). (From Plenarprotokoll 20/157, Deutsche Bundestag).
Mützenich also argued that support for Ukraine and the Zeitenwende for the West should not be subject to political games. Instead, reason, prudence and clarity were needed.
“The Chancellor has supported Ukraine from the start and guaranteed the national security of our country. He has achieved both, and that needs appreciation and support and not insult, ladies and gentlemen. That's why I say it very clearly: “Zeitenwende” is not something for political games. Reason, prudence and clarity are needed, and that is what the Federal Chancellor has to consider in the decisions he has to make. To put it a little more clearly, so that you from the opposition can understand what it is all about…
In October 2022, the American government feared the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine [By the Russia of cause]. That should make us sit up and take notice. Some were convinced back then that this possibility had to be taken into account… and we can be grateful that there is an American President in the White House, who, I believe, has sent all the necessary signals to Moscow.
That's why I say very clearly: my group [in the Bundestag] provides the Chancellor with space for such prudent decisions and also for prudence in the international politics; because the contribution to international national security, and the security of Ukraine is bigger than any discussion about any weapon system, dear colleagues.” (Plenarprotokoll 20/157, Deutsche Bundestag).
 
Outrage in Germany
Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, chairman of the Bundestag Defence Committee, member of the FDP and thus belonging to the government coalition, was outraged. During the war in Ukraine, she never left anyone in doubt that she would support Ukraine with everything they might wish for and then some. Called “Kriegstreiberin” by her adversaries at the time of the Taurus debate, she prominently displayed a Taurus illustration on her blouse.
She did not mince her words: “If that is the attitude of the Social Democrats, we will of course clarify that internally, then it is a paradigm shift … I am sure that Ukraine was just as horrified as all of us in the Bundestag when we heard that.” (Rheinische Post).
The Green Party, with roots in earlier peace movements, but now almost as warlike as Strack-Zimmermann also criticized Mützenich. Green Party chief Nouripour: “Ukraine is not only defending itself, but also the security of Europe from the next Russian aggression ...We should be very clear about what is at stake: our peace and security in Europe.” (Rheinische Post).
Annalena Baerbock from the Greens and Foreign Minister in the Scholz government had this somewhat strange argument against freezing the war in Ukraine:
“What a freeze means for all the people who still have to live under Russian violence every day and every night…Women in particular repeatedly report about night time crimes committed by the Kremlin troops: "They don't know whether Russian soldiers will come to rape them again." That's why everything is being done to ensure that Ukraine can defend itself better” (t-online).
Even Defence Minister Boris Pistorius from SPD distanced himself from Mützenich’s words about the war in Ukraine. “Freezing the conflict "would only help Putin in the end," said the SPD politician during a visit to the Polish capital Warsaw. It must always be about bringing about peace, "but there must not be a dictated peace," nor a "ceasefire or a freeze in which Putin emerges stronger in the end and continues the conflict whenever he pleases.” (Der Spiegel. March 18, 2024).
 
Most disgusting German politician
The always aggressive and outspoken former Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk, wrote this on X targeting Mützenich: “This guy was and remains the most disgusting German politician. Forever and ever.” (Dieser Typ war und bleibt der widerlichste deutsche Politiker. Für immer und ewig).
 
Ridiculous discussion
Chancellor Olaf Scholz, days later: “The debate in Germany cannot be surpassed in terms of ridiculousness,” said the Chancellor on Tuesday at the Europe 2024 conference in Berlin. “This is embarrassing for us as a country.” The discussion, which is primarily about the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles, is not understood outside of Germany.
Scholz pointed out that Germany is Ukraine's second largest arms supplier. This must first be recognized, he demanded. He would like to see a debate in Germany that does not discredit prudence as hesitation.” (FAZ, March 19, 20224)
 
Shifts in German opinion
Perhaps Mützenich’s talk about freezing the war in Ukraine was a shrewdly calculated move, that may even have had the tacit backing of Chancellor Scholz. It could indicate that the Social Democrats have finally become aware that opinion about the war is shifting in Germany.
A recent poll (Meinungsumfrage) may indicate this shift. In February 2024 64% of the population indicate that they think that the war in Ukraine is lost. Only 28% believe that a Ukrainian victory is possible, an opinion mostly found among supporters of the Greens. (Die Welt, February 13, 2024).
A more recent poll also indicate another decisive shift. In answer to the question “Should Ukraine stick to the attitude, that negotiations with Russia should only take place after Russia returned the occupied areas of Ukraine? 45% said “Yes,” while 46% said “No, they should negotiate even though Russia might still occupy large areas of Ukraine.”
Looking at answers from supporters of some of the parties we get this: (Source RTL Deutschland, March 19, 2024):

AfD or Alternative für Deutschland is the right-wing party that has achieved around 18-19% in recent polls, more than the SPD, which has declined to around at 15-16%. The new socialist/realist BSW party (Bundniss Sarah Wagenknecht) sees rising acceptance, hovering around 7%. Both AfD and BSW are against sending weapons to Ukraine, instead they argue in favour of some kind of armistice followed by negotiations.
Leading Social Democrats may have seen the writing on the wall, and decided to test the waters, having Mützenich airing ideas of freezing the war in order to make negotiations possible.
Evidently the Scholz government’s Ampel-coalition has serious a problem in relation to Ukraine support. With Social Democrats in population rather split on Ukraine. The Greens having a much more warlike attitude, advocating for weapons to Ukraine including Taurus and no negotiations. The third member of the so-called Ampel-coalition, FDP, also have views contrary to SPD, but due to their overall lack of support in the population (hovering about 4%), they may be less important.
One wonders how this may play out. For the moment at least Chancellor Scholz is still using the often repeated, but increasingly meaningless words of support for Ukraine. In a Regierungserklärung in the Bundestag on March 20 he: “We will support Ukraine for as long as it is necessary. At the same time, we will ensure that NATO does not become a party to this conflict. And we will not accept a dictated peace at the expense of Ukraine. - These are the common three points that we have noted.” (Plenarprotokoll 20/159, Deutsche  Bundestag). Note that he said “necessary” not the more usual “as long as it takes.”
 
In the meantime: What is going on Ukraine?
Those supporting Ukraine not least because it is a “real” democracy, may be erring.
In The Freedom House measure of Ukraine’s democracy, the country achieves a score of 39,29 out 100, meaning that it characterized as a “transitional or hybrid regime.” (Freedom House, 2023). Thus, certainly not a real democracy.
In a University of Würzburg ranking of “Quality of Democracy” Ukraine ends up as number 92 and is seen as a hybrid regime. Scoring below Burma/Myanmar, but above Sri Lanka – somewhat curious companions in democracy. The reality of those scoring measures may be in doubt, but this what we get from recent rankings. Even worse is the corruption ranking, with Ukraine ending up as number 104 out of 180 countries (https://cpi.ti-ukraine.org/en/).
According to a recent article in Le Monde the Ukrainian opposition is increasingly critical of the Zelensky administration, which presumable means they are critical of President Zelensky “In recent months, several lawmakers belonging to the opposition parties Holos and European Solidarity (of former president Petro Poroshenko) have publicly complained that they have not received the authorization required by the authorities to attend an international event. In power from 2014 to 2019 and now a member of parliament, Poroshenko even went so far as to send a letter, at the end of February, to the European commissioner for neighborhood and enlargement, Oliver Varhelyi, to contest the "misuse" of martial law and war with the aim, in his view, to "cleanse the political field from opposition and isolate it from international communication." Emphasis added. (Le Monde March 19, 2024).
At the very least this might indicate that Verkhovna Rada, the parliament, is losing parliamentary control to President Zelensky.  Which might indicate authoritarian tendencies.   In earlier essays we have tried to argue that the West’s cozying up to President Zelensky is problematic and perhaps not in the best interest of Ukraine and the West.